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Traders,
I’m excited to present my top ideas for the week ahead. As always, I will share my thought process, trade plans, and precise entry and exit targets for ideas I believe could make significant directional moves.
Before I delve into the new ideas, I want to reiterate the importance of adapting to the evolving market conditions. The market dynamics have shifted, and strategies that were effective in the past may not yield the same results. Last week, those who made the necessary adjustments were rewarded with new opportunities. It’s crucial to acknowledge this shift, identify what is no longer effective, and adopt strategies that are suitable for the current market environment.
For example, instead of focusing on a TSM breakout last week, which looked good on the daily, I focused on a short in DJT and MSTR. A look back at the charts shows the outcome. It’s risk-off in the short term. Gold, commodities, and energy stocks are soaring, and last week, we saw some air come out of growth names,
So, continuing with my ideas and adjustments from last week, here are my top ideas for the week ahead:
ACB Short: Push into Supply Zone
On Friday, ACB gave the perfect entry when it pushed into the 2-day VWAP off the open and failed, providing an excellent short entry versus the high of the day after topping out on Thursday. Barring sector news, the stock might need some time to consolidate, and after that, it might trickle higher or lower.
But one scenario I am planning for is a repeat of Friday’s action.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Here’s my plan:
I am looking for a quick push higher into a potential supply zone between $7 – $7.50 and failing for a repeat of Friday’s action. If that move is confirmed, I will be short versus the high of the day, looking to cover half of the position into $6.5 – $6.3. Subsequently, I will trail the position on a 15-minute timeframe using lower highs, willing to hold this for up to three days if we get a trickle lower.
IBIT / Bitcoin Breakout
IBIT / Bitcoin is consolidating ahead of the halving event. Of course, the event is now hugely anticipated, and who knows, it might prove to be a sell-the-news event as everyone is looking for the same thing to happen.
I like how it’s consolidating ahead of a significant event, aligning on multiple timeframes with clear support and resistance. It’s a textbook breakout setup for an entire asset class. So, while momentum breakouts in growth stocks are no longer working, this might be an exception.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Here’s the plan:
If Bitcoin continues to consolidate, this might only take action in several weeks. My plan is to see further consolidation and range expansion, the rubber band effect, and then an expansion in price and volume above $40. That will be my signal to enter long, with a stop below the low of the day for a multi-day, up to a full-week swing position.
My first target on such a breakout would be a move to previous ATHs, near $42, to take off about a third of the position. After that, I would plan to trail my stop on the hourly timeframe using higher lows and slowly scaling out of my position as it makes higher highs.
2 Additional Ideas:
MDIA and CADL were both excellent short-side opportunities for me on Friday. However, cautiously, now that there is a clear level to trade against for a widened timeframe trade, I will look to re-enter with a wider stop and target.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
Of course, MDIA has a small float, but it now also has a lot of overhead resistance. Therefore, once that move fails, I am looking to get short on a push into $4.5 – $5.5. I will be short versus the high of the day, holding for a move back to $3.
*Please note that the prices and other statistics on this page are hypothetical, and do not reflect the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as liquidity, slippage and commissions.
CADL, I want to avoid seeing this consolidate over the multi-day VWAP. Instead, I want to see a push back to $8 and fail. I would get short versus the high of the day, targeting a move to $5.
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