Nasdaq 100 Bears Needed a Bear Trend Bar Closing Far Below 3-4

Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures

The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a bear bar with a tail above. Bears needed a bear trend bar closing far below 3-4. Instead, the market just triggered the bear bar of last week and closed slightly above last week’s low.

On the daily chart, bears are taking more control and were able to produce bear bars 4 out of the 5 days.

NASDAQ 100 Emini futures

The Weekly NASDAQ chart

• The week is a bear bar with a tail above.
• It is a small bar compared to the last two weeks.
• It triggered the sell signal of last week and then closed above last week’s low.
• The November 2021 close is still in play as it currently represents an open bull gap.
• This is the first week since October when bears produced 2 consecutive bear bars, although the last three weeks mostly represent sideways move.
• Bears need to produce a good bear bar next week far below this week’s low.
• Bulls want to trap the bears like they have been for past 6 months and have bull bars next week and the following week.

The Daily NASDAQ chart

• Friday is a bear trend bar closing far below the daily exponential moving average (EMA).
• This is the first good bear close below the EMA since early January.
• Bears have been getting more control over the past two weeks – Of the last 10 days, only 3 days have bull bodies.
• Bears are able to produce consecutive bear bars or 3 bear bars in a row, while bulls are unable to produce consecutive bull bars.
• As shown in the chart, one can also see nested wedges.
• So far, the market has not produced consecutive bear trend bars below the EMA since early January.
• Can bears produce another good bear bar closing far below Friday’s close?
• There are several magnets below for the bears –
  • The first magnet is the November 2021 high close.
  • The second magnet is the close of 1/4/2024 – which was a bear microchannel that was never sufficiently tested.
• Monday was a bear entry bar at the EMA to the large sell signal bar of last Friday.
• The market found buyers at the EMA, and Tuesday was a bull bar.
• However, there was no more follow-through.
• Wednesday and Friday were bear trend days and Thursday was a doji bear day.
• This week was likely a 2^nd leg down to the leg that started on Friday.
• Wednesday-Friday could itself be considered two legs in its own.

Market analysis reports archive

You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.