Emini Daily Chart Forming Wedge Top

Trading Update: Monday March 11, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini last Friday sold off after forming a wedge top with February 23^rd, March 4^th, and last Friday.
• Traders are hesitant to buy new highs and are more interested in buying closer to the moving average.
• The bears are increasing the selling pressure on the daily chart, but they still need to do more.
• The first thing that the bears need to do is stop the buying pressure and make the market form a tight trading range.
• Next, the bears need to get close to the moving average. Ideally, they need to get two to three closes below the moving average. This would increase the odds that the daily chart has transitioned into a trading range.
• Even if the bears get closes below the moving average, the daily chart can still test back up to the March high.
• The bears want today to form a strong entry bar, followed by last Friday as a sign of strength. This would be good for the bears; however, as mentioned above, the bears ultimately need to get strong closes below the moving average.
• The bulls do not mind if the market reaches the moving average as long as the price holds above it. They will see the moving average as an opportunity to buy at a fair price.
• The bulls still have several open gaps during the rally of 2024, and they are hopeful it will continue higher. However, the 2024 bull channel will likely evolve into a trading range. As mentioned above, the market needs more selling pressure to convince traders that a trading range is underway.
• Overall, the daily chart has a wedge top with last Friday, and the odds favor a two-legged pullback to the moving average.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is 9 points in the overnight Globex session.
• The overnight Globex market has gone sideways for several days and is forming a tight trading range on the 15-minute chart.
• As of 7:40 AM EST, the market will close 9 points below the market, which is a small gap.
• The bears will try their best to get a bear trend, which would be a strong entry bar after last Friday’s low on the daily chart.
• The bulls will try to prevent a strong entry bar from forming.
• This means that last Friday’s low will likely be an important magnet on the daily chart as traders decide on the entry bar for last Friday’s bear reversal bar.
• Traders should assume that today, there will be a lot of trading range price action on the open. There is an 80% chance of a trading range open, and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open. This means that the odds favor a double top/bottom or wedge top/bottom forming on the open rather than an immediate trend from the open.
• Traders should consider waiting for 6-12 bars for the reasons mentioned above (sideways).
• There is more than an 80% chance of a swing trade beginning before the end of the second hour, which often begins after a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom forms. Traders should try to catch the opening swing because it usually lasts for at least two legs and two hours. This provides excellent risk/reward.

Friday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• To follow closer to market open

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

Live stream videos to follow Monday, Wednesday and Friday (subject to change).

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.